TERMS OF REFERENCE
FOR
STUDY ON LINKAGES BETWEEN FLOODS AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM

About CPDI
The Centre for Peace and Development Initiatives (CPDI) is an independent, non-partisan and a not-for-profit civil society organization working on issues of peace and development in Pakistan. It is registered under Section 42 of the Companies Ordinance, 1984 (XLVII of 1984). It seeks to inform and influence public policies and civil society initiatives through research - based advocacy and capacity building to promote citizenship, build peace, improve governance, and achieve inclusive and sustainable development. Areas of special sectoral focus include promoting peace and tolerance, police reforms, right to information, strong local governments, climate change and mitigation, transparency in governance, democratic values, rule of law, accountable governance in the country and public health initiatives.
About the Assignment
1. Background
Hum Ahang program aims to strengthen citizen engagement in governance to advance peace, social cohesion and effective disaster management by responding directly to project objectives: “effectiveness of citizen-led interventions strengthened”, and “government responsiveness to citizens’ concerns improved” for more peaceful and resilient communities in the target districts of South Punjab and North Sindh.
Hum Ahang program led by CPDI seeks a qualified consultant to design research framework and methodology and then conduct a study on the linkages between disasters and violent extremism. The consultant will review relevant literature to examine if similar patterns are observed in the target districts, especially in relation to the floods and how consequent poverty, displacement, and grievances contribute to or are impacted by extremist narratives or dynamics of citizen-state relations. The analysis will focus on five selected districts in South Punjab and North Sindh, while keeping in view the overall national and regional context and relevant political, social, economic, cultural and security related trends.
2. Scope of the Research Study
The study will consider the fact that South Punjab and North Sindh regions in Pakistan host higher percentage of poor people, who continue to suffer and are held back due to multiple factors including periodic floods, feudal control, misgovernance, law and order challenges, and conservative social attitudes which may increase their susceptibility to violent extremism. The consultant will study the narratives around causes and impacts of floods in target districts; recording any notable case studies or research findings highlighting the role of disasters in the recruitment and radicalization processes of individuals disposed to extremist ideologies. The study will also document evidence of common trends observed in different disaster-prone regions regarding the influence of those events on the growth of extremist ideologies or activities and will recommend preventive measures or strategies that can be implemented to mitigate the risk of violent extremism during or after a natural disaster like floods, recommending measures to mitigate acts of violent extremism within the context of repeated flooding and environmental shocks; and lastly, it will provide an effective mechanism to measure decrease in linkages between floods and violent extremism in target regions.
The consultant will work closely with the program team to ensure quality and the alignment of the research and analysis with the program goal and objectives.
The framework for the study will assess and analyse following questions:

• How has the occurrence of natural disasters like floods been found to impact the rise of violent extremist activities in affected regions, focusing on various segments of society in the target districts, analysing the specific factors and/or circumstances that contribute to a potential linkage between disasters and the emergence of violent extremism, investigating the impact of floods on vulnerable communities and their susceptibility to radicalization;
• How does disruption in public/government and community/CSOs infrastructure and services during disasters contribute to the vulnerability of communities, potentially leading to exploitation by extremist groups;
• Explain how the role and actions of non-state actors involved in relief and rehabilitation work impact local perceptions and narratives of people, especially of victims, about their relationship with the government and state institutions;
• What are the socio-economic, political, cultural and psychological factors that link disasters like floods to violent extremism;
• Recommend measures to mitigate risks, acts of violent extremism; improved resilience and effective monitoring strategies within the context of repeated flooding and environmental shocks.

3. Key Tasks

• Develop an inception report including a framework, methodology and work plan for the conduct of study;
• Conduct review of relevant literature on the linkages between disasters and violent extremism;
• Conduct field work including 25-30 key informant interviews (KIIs) and 15 focus group discussions (3 FGDs in 5 target districts: 5 each for men and women only and 5 mixed groups) to gather insights from relevant stakeholders like members of local communities, government officials, and experts to understand the socio-economic, political, and psychological factors that contribute to violent extremism within the context of recurring disasters like floods;
• Analyze the data collected to identify the potential linkages between vulnerability to violent extremism and floods, focusing on the specific socio-economic, political, and psychological factors;
• Develop a draft report on the linkages between floods and violent extremism for the review and feedback of CPDI, USAID and other stakeholders including relevant government officers/ authorities;
• Finalize the report on the linkages between floods and violent extremism after addressing the feedback;
• Make presentations to CPDI, USAID and other stakeholders, including relevant government officers/ legislators, to inform their decision making.

4. Proposed Methodology
The consultant is expected to develop a detailed methodology and plan for the analysis/ assessment, which will be finalized in consultation with CPDI. A mixed-methods approach may be employed, combining desk research/ literature review, consultations with key stakeholders (e.g., government officials, community leaders, members of vulnerable communities, civil society organizations, unemployed youth, university students, members of religious groups), and undertaking site visits to gather contextual information and observe the local dynamics. Methodology may elaborate on how the collected data will be analysed. The consultant will be expected to address the ethical guidelines that will be followed throughout the research process, including informed consent, confidentiality, and data protection, while ensuring full compliance with the national and local laws.
5. Key Deliverables and the Payment Schedule:
The deliverables of this assignment and the payment schedule is presented in the table below:

6. Reporting Requirements
The report will be structured as follows, and shall be no more than 35 pages, excluding Annexes. The report shall be arranged by geographic areas and questions.
1) Cover Page
2) List of Acronyms
3) Table of Contents
4) Executive Summary: up to four (4) pages.
5) Program Context: Program Context: Briefly discuss the program models and other essential background information such as purpose of the study, intended audience, key terms definitions.
6) Methodology: Provide an overview of the methodology.
7) Research Limitations: Spell out what can and cannot be concluded from this study.
8) Findings: The findings should respond to the original questions in the TOR and should include both data and analysis directly based on the information gathered.
9) Conclusions/Recommendations/Lessons Learned: Map how findings link to conclusions and then to recommendations for future project improvements/changes.
7. Duration and Budget
The consultant will be engaged for 60-65 days to complete and deliver the report on the linkages between disasters like floods and violent extremism. The assignment should be completed within two months of its award. The budget for this assignment will be finalized through negotiation. Additionally, the financial proposals should be inclusive of costs related to field travel and sales tax if applicable.
8. Required Qualification and Experience
The consultant should meet the following qualification and experience requirement:

• At least a master’s degree in a relevant social science discipline;
• At least 08 years of proven relevant experience of conducting researches, studies, assessments and analyses, preferably about political economy and conflict sensitivity;
• Good understanding of socio-economic and cultural situation of local context of target districts;
• Excellent analytical, writing, and presentation skills;
• Ability to communicate in local language.

Apply By:

9. How to Apply
Please submit the following documents as part of your proposal:

• Understanding of the assignment – 10 (marks)

• Technical approach and methodology - 20

• Sample size - 10

• Field research plan and execution – 15

• Researcher Profile and Past Experience – 15

Technical proposal, CV and cover letter will carry a weightage of 70% in the evaluation process whereas the financial quotation will carry a weightage of 30%.
Additionally, please ensure that the financial proposal is in PKR and includes all relevant taxes and logistical expenses, such as travel, lodging, and incidentals, for activities and meetings at CPDI offices. Also, please add the bid validity. Note that CPDI will not cover any additional expenses, and no expense claims will be entertained.
Submission Instructions:

• All proposals must be sealed.
• Address submissions to: CPDI Islamabad Head Office, House 55, Street 690, G.13/4, Islamabad.

Important: Late submissions will not be considered.